Mets 2011 Preview

A season of realistic expectations.

Out: Minaya, Manuel, Ollie, Castillo, Feliciano (Jesus), Gut Feelings as a coaching and scouting style.
In: Alderson, Collins, Capuano, Young, Emaus and lots of other littler but important names

The front office and management overhaul that the Mets exercised this off season will have dramatic effects.  This is not a winning team as presently constituted, but it is a organization that is moving in the correct direction on the playing field.  I will explain briefly what to expect at each playing position.

C - Josh Thole / Ronny Paulino
Thole is a young catcher entering his second year.  Very hard worker, line drive and on base guy.  Will be a very average offensive catcher which is just fine.  He is earning raves from the pitchers on his work ethic and how he calls a game.  Supposedly has worked very hard to become an above average defensive guy and he looks to be on the field five games per week.
Paulino comes to the Mets from the Marlins.  He is currently serving a  PED suspension that will make him miss the beginning of the season, and will be an adequate backup.

1B - Ike Davis
Davis was a huge bright spot for the Mets in 2010.   One of the premier defensive 1B in the game already, and with enough of an emerging bat to get excited about.  He will grow into a fixture on the field and in the clubhouse.

2B - Brad Emaus/ Daniel Murphy / (Reese Havens???)
Emaus is currently the front runner for the job, despite reports that Luis Hernandez is favored by Collins.  Emaus was claimed via the Rule 5 draft which dictates that he must spend the entire season on the MLB roster or be returned to the Toronto Blue Jays.  He is a short and stocky guy with adequate range and a big bat.  Lots of comparisons have been made to Dan Uggla, but this is extremely hopeful.  15 homers would be a lot to expect in the cavernous ballpark that is Citifield
Murphy is more of a pinch hitter.  His range is limited, his experience is limited, his heart is not.  He is a great teammate and ballplayer, just has no natural position, certainly not 2B.  Many have said that Davis's range at 1B can make up for lack thereof at 2B, but that is a falsehood.  Current management values defense too much to have any liabilities in the field, especially with the makeup of the pitching staff.
Reese Havens played AA last year.  He is an athlete with speed and a huge bat.  He has been beleaguered by injuries, otherwise, he may already be on the big club.  He is the future at the position, if he can remain healthy (had an inch taken off his rib this off season, ouch).

SS - Jose Reyes / Ruben Tejada
Reyes is healthy, looking for a contract and says he will take walks.
New regime values on base percentage as the measuring stick of a lead off hitter, and Reyes does not excel in that category.  Reyes is exciting, has speed and power, but he also has relatively little patience and has not learned that a walk and a single have the same result on the game (albeit not on individual achievement)
Reyes can return to all star form, but will most likely be playing for a different ball club come June or July. 
Tejada played some 2B and some SS last year.  He has been sent to AAA to be the everyday SS, in order to get enough reps to take over for Reyes next year.

3B - David Wright
Wright is the leader of the Mets.  Wants to be a lifelong Met, loves the spotlight of NY and has the game and attitude to lead the resurgence of the franchise.  Wright rediscovered his power stroke last year (28 homers) and should continue his success.  He is extremely streaky and when he is at his best, hits line drives to the opposite field.  His slumps are caused by getting pull happy and by getting fooled on outside sliders.  The more patient at working counts that he is, the more successful he will be this season. 

RF - Carlos Beltran / Willie Harris / Scott Hairston / Lucas Duda
Beltran is our new everyday right fielder.  He is the biggest wild card for the team.  He is in the final year of a 7 year deal and is playing for his next contract.  He is coming off multiple surgeries that will definitely affect his ability to steal bases and play above average defense.  He is balky, and has developed a reputation for not playing through pain.  If he can play 150 games, he will greatly influence the win total, but i think 80 games is a more appropriate goal.
Willie Harris and Scott Hairston figure to platoon in Beltran's absence.  Both players can hit for power and run, but do not project as everyday players because of their inability to hit pitchers from the opposite side. Hairston (.228 vs righties, .278 vs lefties for his career)  Harris (.246 vs righties, .202 vs lefties)
Lucas Duda is the wild card.  Duda got called up last year and filled in some.  He is hitting well this spring, and supposedly is turning on pitches in a way that has caused a huge power increase.  He is the potential starting right fielder in 2012.  If Beltran goes down with a sustained injury, expect Duda to be the everyday right fielder, as it pays for the organization to see what they have in him.

CF - Angel Pagan
Another bright spot from 2010.  Pagan will bat 2nd and will be like having a second lead off hitter.  Pagan will hit double digit home runs, steal 40+ bases and play above average defense in CF.  If he can keep his average up, he will be a bright spot again for the Mets in full time duty.

LF - Jason Bay
Bay is looking for a bounce back year after a slow start and subsequent year ending concussion.  Bay has never had a bad year, and should rebound to hit .280, hit 20 something homers and steal an occasional base.  Do not expect his fielding to look graceful, but he will get the job done.

Rotation - Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese, Young, Capuano
Pelfrey took strides towards being a front end guy last year.  Taking away a bad month and a half stretch, his numbers would have been remarkable.  If he can harness the talent, he could be a perennial 15 game winner.  Will he?

Dickey was a journeyman knuckleballer.  Turns out, all he had to do was throw harder.  A fiery guy, dedicated to learning and improving, he visited with the most famous knuckleballers that would talk to him, including Wilhelm and Niekro.  When he finally starting throwing harder and being himself, he found his groove.  Knuckleballers are known to find it and lose it and find it and lose it, but i sense that Dickey is different.  Look for great home results and for him to struggle a bit on the road.

Niese is another up and down performer.  He has the arsenal with a nasty cutter to complement his 93 mph fastball and curve, and he is a competitor.  Can he put it all together?  Seems to be a running theme on the staff.

Young and Capuano have both won 17 games in a season.  Both have great potential and both are coming off major injuries and surgeries.  A combined 30 starts between them would be a great result.  Look for Dillon Gee to be called up to replace the first that goes down.

Johan Santana is said to be returning before August, but i believe him to be out for the year unless the Mets are in playoff contention.  He is under contract for a few more years, and there is no good reason to rush him back with the amount of guaranteed money going to him.  I hope i am wrong.

Bulllpen -
Krod pitches the ninth.  After missing the end of the season because of a broken finger caused by a fight with his father in law, KROD has a lot to prove on and off the field.  He is a great pitcher and a known competitor and is the only member of the pen without questions of ability.
Jason Isringausen and Bobby Parnell will compete for the eigth inning. 
Other arms back there are DJ Carrasco, Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta, Pedro Beato (another rule five guy), Taylor Tankersley, Taylor Bucholtz and Pat Misch (long man).
I believe that relievers can be great or terrible regardless of track record.   This group needs to get on a roll and keep it going.

Opening Lineup
1.  Reyes  2.  Pagan  3.  Wright  4.  Beltran  5.  Bay  6.  Davis  7.  Emaus  8. Thole  9.  Pelfrey
End of Year Lineup
1.  Pagan  2.  Havens  3.  Wright  4.  Bay  5.  Davis  6.  Duda  7.  Tejada  8.  Thole  9.  Pelfrey

Synopsis  (70 wins, 92 losses)
This is a transitional year for the Mets.  They have gotten Castillo and Perez out, Beltran and Reyes are next.  Expect to see a lot of younger players trying out for 2012 by the end of the year.  There is enough talent in the organization and money coming off the books to expect vast improvement in the next two years.  Hopefully the new leadership and mentality will prove to be a difference maker, as there were no new acquisitions.  The projected record is not a result of poor performance only, but also of contracts shed and conservative handling of the staff ace. 


Management - Terry Collins is a fiery personality and a guy that stresses fundamentals and smarts.  He will squeeze out a few wins on baseball accumen and he will run a meritocracy.  The cutting of Perez and Castillo will go a long way towards improved morale.  The upper management is very numbers oriented and will stress on base percentage, taking walks, working counts and other 'Moneyball' fundamentals.  The earlier this team sees relief pitchers, the happier Sandy Alderson will be.